Not Ugly..but the GOOD and the BAD- part 1

Today’s column will focus on some good draft moves and some bad draft moves. I am not saying some of these players should never be drafted, just be wary as to what round of the draft you find yourself picking the player. I will attempt to start at the early drafts rounds and work to about 20 or so. This is going to be a 3 or 4 part advice column.

Please make a comment on anything you think is way off base and give me some reasons.

GOOD- BAD

Good- Miguel Cabrera Cabrera is only 24 and is now in one of the best lineups in baseball. At the very least, Cabrera should be taken before Ryan Howard. At best, he could go as the fourth overall pick of the draft.

BAD: Jose Reyes. Reyes should certainly be a first-round pick, but not before Wright or Holliday. Sure, he is the second best fantasy option at shortstop (behind Hanley Ramirez) but Reyes should be downgraded a few spots given his primary contribution to fantasy teams is the unreliable stolen base.

GOOD-BAD

Best Pick: If you took a infielder in the first round then this is where you take the stud outfielder such as Grady Sizemore. This young guy has quietly, yes I said quietly, put together some phenom numbers.

Worst Pick: Ichiro Suzuki- If forced to choose a pick and outfielder that I find questionable, in the second round, I’d have to go with Ichiro, but only because Ichiro will be turning 35 at the end of the 2008 season – an age when players typically begin to steal fewer and fewer bases, one of Ichiro’s strongest stats. Although Seattle Mariners Manager John McLaren stated in December that Ichiro could steal 80 bags this season, I think it is more realistic to expect closer to 30 in the near future.

GOOD-BAD

Best Pick: Travis Hafner- Many fantasy owners who invested an early round pick on Hafner were disappointed by his 2007 season. However, injuries (hand, knee, hamstring) were largely to blame for his poor season. I fully expect the 30-year-old slugger, who has first base eligibility in some formats, to rebound in 2008.

Worst Pick: Derek Jeter- Despite batting over .320 and getting over 200 hits for the third consecutive season, 2007 was a down year for Jeter. He had only 12 home runs and stole less than half as many bases as he did in 2006. Jeter will be turning 34 in June, and while he can still be considered a top-six shortstop, the third round is too early for him – especially in keeper leagues.

GOOD-BAD

This round is generally when you start to see second tier starting pitchers go off the board. CC Sabathia, Erik Bedard, and Josh Beckett. Some prefer youth here.

Best pick: Josh Beckett- Considered by many to be the third best starting pitching option, Beckett could be the steal of this round when you take a pitcher that won 20 games in 2007 (and the first since 2005). At only 27 years of age (he turns 28 in May), the runner up for the AL Cy Young has many good years ahead of him.

Worst Pick: Joe Mauer. Although the 24-year-old catcher could very well rebound in 2008, the questions surrounding his health and the development of power that most scouts expected, still remain. It’s precisely these question marks that should put him closer to Brian McCann’s draft position, 3 rounds later, than in Victor Martinez and Russell Martin territory.

GOOD-BAD

Best Pick: Derrek Lee- Although Lee hit .317 in 2007, it was considered a down year for him as he hit only 22 home runs and knocked in only 82 RBI. Lee had 16 of those 22 home runs in the second half, however, and another year removed from wrist problems will have Lee bouncing back in 2008.

Worst Pick: Jason Bay- Bay is certainly a bounce back candidate for 2008, but I think you would be reaching here. Drafted in the second and third rounds last year, Bay disappointed his owners by hitting .247 with only 21 home runs in 2007. This was nearly four rounds too early for this 29-year-old.

Those are rounds 1-5. Yes, some of those players may not be available in your draft at those spots. The key to winning any fantasy league is to select players at the best available spot to maximize your results.

Part 2 on its way.