Stuff to chew on.
Rich Hill
Rich Hill’s horrid outing on Thursday raises some red flags. Hill’s spring has been littered with control problems, walking 14 batters in just 12 2/3 innings. Such wild control issues for pitchers who don’t usually exhibit control problems can often be indicative of some latent injury concerns. While this is the first thing that comes to my mind whenever I see an extreme lack of control, I’m willing to give Hill a bit more of a pass because he’s working on a new, quicker, delivery to the plate. Hill’s next start comes Tuesday and while he’s guaranteed the #4 spot in the Cubs rotation, I’m going to be paying close attention to Hill’s next start before he’s guaranteed a spot in my starting lineup.
John Smoltz
John Smoltz was scratched from his start on Friday with shoulder stiffness. We haven’t seen much from Smoltz this spring as he had received approval from the Braves to conduct most of his spring preparation on the back fields in simulated games. At this point there’s no indication that Smoltz had planned this program because of any lingering shoulder soreness heading into the spring and Smoltz claims had Friday’s start been a regular season start he would’ve taken the mound. He’s scheduled to start next Wednesday and remains optimistic about his ability to make that start, despite acknowledging another setback could result in a brief DL stint to start the year. Smoltz has been remarkably consistent, eclipsing 200 innings each of the last 3 seasons, and should still be viewed as a tremendous #2 fantasy starter. At 41 there will certainly be lingering concerns surrounding any reported arm troubles, but Smoltz has proven his durability and his abilities to pitch through pain throughout his career.
Pedro Martinez
Pedro’s 2nd outing of the spring was another positive one as he tossed 5 solid innings against the Nationals. Pedro struck out 4 in the 5 innings without walking a batter and only surrendered 5 base-runners and 2 runs. Pedro’s strong spring should alleviate any concerns about Pedro’s ability to come back after last year’s shoulder surgery. Martinez won’t be the fantasy ace of the early portion of this decade, but he should be able to settle into that solid #2-3 fantasy starter. His inability to last deep into games may impact his raw totals in the counting stats, but his ability to control the strike zone and his strong home park should help keep his ratios down.
Aaron Harang
Aaron Harang continued his strong spring on Friday shutting the Pirates out for 6 innings. Harang struck out 5, only allowing 4 base-runners (all hits) during his 6 shutout innings. Harang’s been a bit undervalued in the drafts I’ve seen this year as he tends to sit towards the bottom of the 2nd tier of fantasy aces despite consecutive 200+ K, 16 Win seasons. Harang pitches in a difficult ballpark, but gets the benefit of facing the NL Central opponents all season and should have improved bullpen support this year with Francisco Cordero behind him, hopefully boosting his win totals. Harang’s similar to Smoltz in my mind that he’s an undervalued anchor to your staff that you can still land in the middle rounds. Look for Harang to put together another 200+ K season with another 15-19 wins with solid ratios.
Yovani Gallardo
Its official, Yovani Gallardo will be starting the season on the DL. The Brewers officially placed Gallardo on the DL on Friday making sure that he’ll miss the first two weeks of the season. Gallardo was originally scheduled to miss up to the first month of the season, but based on his throwing schedule it looks like the minimum stint on the DL remains possible.
Randy Johnson
Johnson’s 3rd start of the spring yielded mixed results. While reports on his velocity continued to remain strong, his performance was sub-par. Johnson gave up 5 hits and 2 BB’s in his 3 2/3 innings while yielding 2 earned runs. Johnson did strike out three, raising his total to 9 in 11 2/3 innings this spring, but he also served up another HR to Andruw Jones and a 2B to Chan Ho Park. Johnson continues to focus on his health rather than the results, which should be your focus heading into draft day as well. I maintain Johnson as one of the better sleeper candidates because of the incredible dominance he showed last year. Johnson’s 72 K’s in 57 innings along with his 1.15 WHIP last year show ace-level dominance and even if that only comes in 15-25 starts this year, his current average draft position is giving owners strong value.
Chris Snyder
It’s been widely publicized how incredibly thin the catching position is this year so any potential “sleeper” deserves some attention. So if I had a player that hit .284/.366/.503 in the 2nd half of last season and was hitting .355/.436/.912 this spring would that be something you’d be interested in? Well, let me introduce you to Chris Snyder, the Diamondbacks catcher who appears to be grabbing the reigns as the full-time catching option with Miguel Montero’s injury. Snyder’s main drawback has been his need to split time with Montero, but with Montero likely to start the season on the DL, Snyder has an opportunity to assert himself as an everyday option. Keep him in mind as a 2nd catching option with some upside as our current projection of .259-40-14-51 is limited by the 342 AB’s. If he can get closer to 450 AB’s and his 2nd half from last season carries over at all we could be looking at a Ramon Hernandez in his prime type season, which would likely put him just outside the clear cut Top 5 fantasy options (Martinez, Martin, Mauer, McCann, Posada).
Alex Gordon
Trey Hillman announced on Friday that Alex Gordon is still in the running for the #3 slot in the batting order. It was thought that Gordon was destined for the 7th spot in the lineup, but this latest news could be a nice boost to the youngster’s value. Gordon hit another HR on Friday and has put together a solid spring hitting over .350 and slugging over .500. As Schuyler mentioned in a previous spring blurb, Gordon’s getting vastly overlooked in drafts this year and seems to be offering great value in drafts. As much as we love to clamor over Ryan Braun’s 2007, Gordon was universally considered the better prospect heading into the season. Maybe some of this is because Gordon’s superior glove-work but the bats aren’t that far off, as Gordon’s AA OPS of over 1.000 in his first pro season would suggest. If Gordon bats 3rd he’ll likely see an additional 80-100 plate appearances and could result in a significant increase in both his Run and RBI numbers.