Johnson-Prior-Harden and more

Rangers SP Jason Jennings won his first game of the spring on Thursday allowing two runs in 5.1 innings. Jennings did not pitch after August 20th last year and is recovering from surgery to fix a torn flexor tendon. Jennings finished with a 2.12 ERA this spring. However, even if you wanted to ignore and give Jennings the benefit of the doubt for his injury plague 2007, one should not expect Jennings to return to his 2006 numbers. That year was almost a perfect storm for Jennings where he posted a HR/FB% of 7% and a career low in .293 BABIP. Both these indicators combined with a below average career K/BB ratio of 1.51 should mean a return to a 5+ ERA and 1.50+ WHIP that was the norm for Jennings prior to 2006.

The chants to “Free Andre Ethier” are growing louder by the day from both Dodger fans and fantasy owners alike. Ethier (1.165 OPS) has out produced incumbent Juan Pierre (.500 OPS – that’s not a typo) by a country mile this spring. His offensive supremacy combined with being an above-average fielder would make it an absolute crime if Ethier isn’t starting in left field for Los Angeles come opening day. His gaudy spring numbers is making fantasy owners salivate but owners’ expectations should be tempered a bit. Ethier has displayed only a slightly above average eye in his career (8.7 BB%) and has only hit 9.3% of his fly balls out of the park. Owners should expect just average numbers from Ethier in 2008. However, given the chance to play every day he’s a nice alternative to the norm and has plenty of upside.

Padres SP Mark Prior threw 25 pitches off the mound to live hitters for the first time since he had arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder last February. Prior has been place on the Padres 60-day DL and isn’t expected to return to the big club till at least June 1st. Prior to an injury plague 2006 season, Prior had four consecutive seasons of K/9 ratio great than 10.00. In addition, Prior has a career 3.51 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, this is all despite batters having a career .315 BABIP. Prior is worth stashing away in leagues with multiple DL spots for the potential strikeout numbers alone.

The Rockies named Franklin Morales the team’s fifth starter. Despite a 6.65 ERA this spring, fantasy owners should keep an eye on the young Rockies hurler. Morales pitched well in his 8 starts in the big leagues last year posting a 3.43 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. However, this was aided by a .274 BABIP and 6.7 HR/FB%. On the positive side for Morales backers, he greatly reduced his BB/9 after he got called up. In 112.2 minor league innings in 2007, Morales posted a 4.63 BB/9. However, in just 39.1 major league innings, Morales reduced this metric by 44.7% to 3.20, which is just around the league average. It’s a small sample size but definitely a step in the right direction. In addition, he showed himself to be an extreme groundball pitcher (54.9% GB% in 2007) which bodes well in Colorado. Duplicating his 2007 numbers over the course of the full season for Morales seems a bit of a stretch but a 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP wouldn’t be out of the question.

When the Rockies have a competition for the final spot in their rotation and it’s between Mark Redman and Josh Towers, someone has to win. Redman was the winner as his 7.20 spring ERA just edged out Towers’ 7.23 ERA. If Redman even crossed your mind as a potential deep sleeper, here are some numbers to hopefully erase that thought. In three of the last four years, Redman has posted a 1.50 WHIP or greater. In addition, his K/BB ratio hasn’t even approached 2.00 since Bush’s first term in office. To make matters worse, Redman’s FB% increased by 8.9%, a jump that doesn’t bode well in Coors Field. Redman shouldn’t even be on the radar for any fantasy owners.

Much to the chagrin of his fantasy owners, Marlins’ manager Fredi Gonzalez stated his preference that SS Hanley Ramirez not do quite as much basestealing this year. Lucky for fantasy owners, even if there is a slight reduction in Ramirez’ stolen base attempts; he is still the best hitting shortstop in the game. Ramirez absolutely raked last year. He posted a .948 OPS and was also able to increase his HR/FB% by 3%. One thing to watch from Ramirez is that he has only showed average patience at the plate (7.5 BB% in 2007). However, with a weaker lineup than in the past behind him, if he is able to show even more patience, he should have some additional stolen base run scoring opportunities.

Many owners passed on  Rich Harden in their drafts and for good reason; he’s only pitched 71.1 innings since 2005. Harden was around the 50th pitcher off the board in many drafts. After his first start vs. the Red Sox in Tokyo on Wednesday, those who passed on him may be regretting that decision. Harden pitched 6 strong innings, only allowing 3 hits and 3 walks while notching 9 strikeouts. Even when the Red Sox hitters were able to make contact, Harden had them fooled. His LD% for the game was a miniscule 9.1% while his FB% was 63.6%. In other words, Harden had the Red Sox hitters off balanced and popping up his pitches for easy outs. It’s only one start but it’s a nice thing for Harden owners to see and they should expect many more of them in the future…as long as he can stay on the field.