More Bits…

Here’s some more news that’s affecting our player projections this week:

Player Projections on the rise

• RP Brandon Lyon has been appointed to the closers role in Arizona, but it may be short lived. Lyon pitches to contact, which isn’t a very good qualification for a closer. It would be surprising to see him last the season in that role. Lyon had a career year in ‘07, and he did it with a abnormally low K/I ratio of .54. To put that into proper context, his K/I ratio translates to about half the strikeouts per inning we usually see from successful closers. A more likely scenario will have Chad Qualls or Tony Pena closing games.

• P Mike Hampton is throwing well, Bobby Cox went out of his way to say “He’s on top of his game right now.” If you play in a league that starts 70+ pitchers, Hampton might be in your sights. Hampton won 13 and 14 games in his most recent full seasons, and was rolling with a 3.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP before being shut down in ‘05.

• 1B Casey Kotchman is no longer a platoon risk, management has made it clear that they don’t intend on platooning Kotchman this year. Kotch actually hit for a higher average last year against lefties than righties (.315 vs .292). We’re expecting Kotchman, who is only 25, to increase his power production this year. He makes for a great late round sleeper.

• RP BJ Ryan has already thrown 9 bullpen sessions, and all have been pain free. The true test will come when he starts throwing fastballs early next week. The plan is for Accardo to open the season as the team’s closer, although there is speculation that Ryan  can regain his former role by the All Star break. The typical full recovery time for TJ surgery is 18 months, which would be after the 2008 season (Ryan had the surgery in early May of ‘07.)

• According to the team’s official website: P Yovani Gallardo has already begun therapy since arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on Tuesday, and said he remains committed to being ready by Opening Day. Expect the calendar to read May before Gallardo is close to being 100%. Gallardo held opponents to a .240 BA during his rookie campaign.

• P Jason Schmidt has had successful throwing sessions this past week and is now the front runner for the Dodgers 5th rotation slot. He’s reportedly “throwing all of his pitches with some life”. Things are going so well that Joe Torre has already informed Esteban Loaiza that his role may be in long relief. if Schmidt is indeed ready for the opening bell.

        Player Projections on the decline

• 1B Craig Wilson failed his physical for the Reds, which creates a void. Since Wilson is a right handed batter, he was expected to platoon with Rookie Lefty Joey Votto. Without Wilson, this would leave only lefty Scott Hatteberg as Votto’s competition for playing time. However Hatteberg only hit .205 against lefties last year, which may be enough reason to give Votto his fair share of ABs against lefties.

• Although OF Dave Roberts is a tempting option for those leagues that value SBs, he is inevitably headed for a platoon situation with Raj Davis. Roberts a LHB, has a lifetime .274/.235 R/L split.

• Detroit’s setup/potential closer Fernando Rodney is experiencing shoulder pain this spring.

• C Russell Martin has been told by new manager Joe Torre, that he intends to give Martin some more rest this year. With the Yankees, Torre’s catcher, Jorge Posada, averaged about 10 fewer games per year, and the new skipper has indicated a similar workload is in store for Martin with planned days off. The Dodgers’ backstop is beginning to sound receptive to the plan.  We’re going to shave off 25 additional ABs based on these comments.