4 TOP Prospects…

Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland

Daric excels at getting a good pitch to hit. His zone command and contact skills are outstanding (120 walks/106 Ks in his last 735 AB over the last two seasons). The problem is that he looks too much like Sean Casey … without the power.

His career high SLG% above AA was .438 before he hit the majors last season where he posted 4 homers and 9 doubles in 72 ABs. His 4 HRs were nearly half of the number he hit (9) in 516 AAA last year. He is not going to SLG .639 over a full season but that was a welcome flash of power.

Daric is also struggling a bit with LHP but he has a skill set that will allow him to make gains there. If he cannot make power gains however, his value will be cramped and he plays in a position that demands power production. Despite what we saw in his short tour with the A’s last season, in the long run, it is unlikely he will develop enough power to be competitive in a starting 1B slot.

Projections:
.278/74 R/21 HR/70 RBI

Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston
Clay, like rookie teammate Jacoby Ellsbury is simply a special player, and a dream pitching prospect by most any standards. He brings a mid-nineties fastball when he needs it, a hard slider, a plus-plus vertical curve and it is all set up by a change up that is probably the best pitch of the bunch.

He was ludicrous in AA last year (7-2, 1.77, 116 Ks/22 BBs in 86.2 IP) and posted 193Ks/ 45 walks in 148+ IP between there, AAA, and Boston.

The Red Sox will limit his innings again this year, to probably something around 180. That will dampen his statistical potential and probably cause him to miss some starts as the Sox aim him at September and beyond, but Clay is a top-of-the-rotation prospect with multiple All-Star games and possibly a Cy in his future.

Projections:

152 IP / 1.19 WHIP/3.37 ERA/ 12 W / 134 K 

Joba Chamberlain, RHP, NY Yankees
Like Clay Buchholz, the Yankees will work very hard to limit Joba Chamberlains innings this year, and their target number for Joba is a low 140 IP. Instead of last year’s “Joba Rules”, the Yanks will pitch Joba in relief to start the year with the intention of moving him to starter’s role in the summer.

The good news is that his starting in the bullpen will suppress his value in most leagues on draft day and you may be able to get a bargain on this high-level prospect. The bad news is that this may very well postpone his ascension to a top-half-of-the-rotation starter for a year.
Joba rose three levels last season starting one game in AAA. His seven starts in AA yielded a 4-2 record with a 3.37 ERA, allowing just 32 hits on 40.1 IP with just 15 walks against 66 Ks. Overall he had 135 Ks and 27 walks over 88.1 ML IP. Ya … that’s pretty good and those AA IP came at 22 years old. I like this kid very nearly as much as I like Buchholz. He has #1 starter potential.

Projections;

150 IP / 1.27 WHIP/3.41 ERA/ 12 W / 136 K 

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston
The “other” Red Sox prospect would be a once-in-a-GM’s-lifetime prospect in most organizations.

After ripping up the AA Eastern League to the tune of a .452 AVG. over 73 ABs, Jacoby went to Pawtucket where he hit “just” .298 in 363 ABs as a part of a brutally bad offense.  Then in Boston Jacoby hit .353 in 116 ABs.

His numbers with the Red Sox had some quirks. He fanned 15 times and walked 6, which is a different zone command animal from his 38 walks and 54 K in 436 ABs between AA and AAA.  On the other hand, he hit 3 HRs in Boston, which is more than he hit all season in the minors, and he slugged .509 in the majors.

I do not see him repeating that level of power production this season but that is not why you should be seeking Ellsbury. He will hit for average and score runs in a potent offense, especially if he can hang in the lead off position. He will also steal bases, quite probably 30 or more this year.

Do not let his slow start this spring dissuade you too much, he is the centerfielder of choice among the Red Sox brass. Jacoby is 24 years old so it is hard to project a lot more physical growth, but he may have a little growth left in his power game. That being said he will forever be an AVG., Runs, SB guy, and not much more.

His spectacular finish to last year and his performance in the World Series will pump his price and there will be someone in your league who will believe he’s realistically capable of 15 HRs and 70 Rbi … That’s unlikely, in 2008 or frankly, beyond, so don’t pay for it.

Ellsbury is going to be one of those players who are more valuable to his MLB team than his fantasy owner. It will be easy to overpay, so stay calm.

 Projections: .283/ 63 R / 14 HR / 57 RBI / 28 SB